Sorry for posting this so late, but I needed to spend a lot of time researching these games.

Okay, every game today is VERY risky, most of them are BO1's. The staff games are all highly volitile and I'll skip almost all of them. Expect a short analysis for most as there isn't much information to go by.
----------
NEW GAMES POSTED AT THA TOP
----------
Liquid > CLG
This is similar to the Method v VVV matchup the other day, where my personal odds favored the underdog on CSGL. This is a 55/45 game for Liquid IMO. If it was a CEVO BO2 it would be a straight up 70/30. The difference here is that the maps are pre-determined, Inferno and Train. Both teams are good on these maps, especially CLG on Inferno.

In a CEVO BO2 Liquid could pretty much pick any map they wanted and win. CLG are terrible on Cache, Liquid are great on Cobble and Overpass, etc. etc. Anyways, I digress. Given the maps, CLG COULD take the series 2-0, so I'm not as confident with this bet as I normally would be.

I'm not sure what happened, but ever since Liquid went into that slump they haven't really been looked at the same. Their players are all very strong, and can easily go head to head with CLG. CLG doesn't even have a true fifth, and if it's JDM, that's a huge downgrade and they now have a weak link. Not to mention that CLG haven't really been playing like themselves the last few weeks.

Like I said above, because of the maps the game is a little bit risky, and CLG could sweep the series 2-0, but Liquid SHOULD win at least one if not both. I'll go low on them at these odds.

My Bet: Liquid (Low: $25)

----------
F3 > Embrace
Be careful with this game!!! Embrace has solid players (Darti op) and they managed to beat Kinguin 16-1 on Cache in what I believe was probably a fluke game, but still impressive nonetheless. However they are missing "godlike" a player from the roster they beat Kinguin with, and instead have VICKEE, who is not bad either.

I don't know enough about Embrace to trust them with a low underdog bet, but I think it's worth an ICB ($3).

My Bet: ICB Embrace
----------

STAFF GAMES
----------

99dmg > XPC

I only think 99dmg staff will win because XPC looks like trash. Still way too risky and I'm not going to touch it.

My Bet: 99dmg.staff (SKIP or RIP)

----------

SLTV > RGN

RGN has highly ranked players, but they will be playing from across the world in a BO1, so I do not expect their pings to be great. Besides, all of these games are like PUGs, anyone can win.

SLTV on the other hand hail from Russia I believe, so by default they will have better pings. Their players are also good enough to beat globals IMO.

This is still a game between two teams that are not on the pro level of CS, and it's a BO1. I'm probably just going to skip. It would not be unreasonable to place a low bet on SLTV if their odds remain at 50% or better, though.

My Bet: SLTV (bet on them at your own risk)

----------

HLTV > GG

HLTV seem like the better team... I guess. EZ skip.

My Bet: HLTV (SKIP OR RIP!!)

----------

SLTV > GS

Gameshow staff don't seem very good, but they seem like they could be good enough to upset SLTV in a BO1. Just another skip.

My Bet: SLTV (SKIP or RIP)

----------

Fnatic > 1G

This is probably the safest staff game. Even without Devilwalk I think Fnatic staff should be better all around. Still too risky for me though, because you never know with this kind of game.

My Bet: Fnatic (SKIP or RIP)

----------

Fragbite > Reddit

Rofl, one of the Reddit staff members (yes confirmed real) had no confidence in their chances in this matchup because their ping is hilariously bad. He even said to bet on Fragbite or skip. However Fragbite staff are pretty bad and Reddit could surprise themselves. I do not believe playing from a place of confidence plays too big of a factor on these PUG style games.

My Bet: Fragbite (SKIP or RIP)

ENVY GAMES
First off, I want to say that even though EnvyUs have been in a terrible slump, I can't see them losing all 3 of their BO1's today. The problem is that I can't determine which one(s) they will win. I'll take a guess, though.
----------

Envy > TSM

Both Envy and TSM are very good on Inferno. TSM is obviously the favorite since Envy have been slumping hardcore, but even still this should be a 60/40 for TSM. T1 vs T1 BO1's are highly unpredictable.

Still, this matchup deserves a skip as it is the first of 3 Envy games. We can use this game to see how Envy is playing and then determine how to bet on them in their later games. If odds get too juicy (23% or less for Envy) I'll likely do an ICB of like $3 on them.

My bet: ICB EnvyUs

----------

Na'Vi > Envy

The map is Overpass. Even in good form Envy would struggle to win this matchup. I'm giving Na'Vi 70/30 odds here, but like I said above T1 vs T1 BO1's are super random and anything can happen.

My bet: Na'Vi (SKIP or RIP)

----------

Envy > Fnatic
No idea who will win here. The map is train. Fnatic have TWO stand-ins.

Fnatic have put up some strong results even without Olof. They managed to take out VP with Schneider and make a close BO3 with TSM. In the BO3 with TSM, they only lost Train by 2 rounds, 14-16. However this time around they don't have Krimz either, leaving them with just Pronax Flusha and JW. Train is a map where team play is extremely useful and it would be pretty wild if Envy were so bad that they STILL couldn't win this match.

Envy are very good on Train, managing to beat VP on it in a time when VP were being very hyped for their Train performance. If it wasn't for their slump, I would peg them as favorites against this Fnatic lineup. In fact, given these circumstances, I still do peg them as a slight favorite.

The conditions: Fnatic had a stand-in but still managed a 14-16 scoreline on Train against TSM. Envy is no slouch on Train but have had terrible results in general recently. I think this is a 55/45 game favoring Envy, so the odds are begging for an underdog bet. However I won't be placing a bet until I've watched Envy play in their first two games today.

My bet: Watch the 2 EnvyUs games first, but likely medium on Envy.

----------

ESC > KFish

Everything still stands from my analysis yesterday despite KFish's BO1 win against ESC. KFish only won 16-14. This is still a 50/50 matchup and depends on who is playing better for the day. The smart bet is on the underdog.

My bet: Low on ESC ($20)

----------

X6 > Tricked

Another very random game. Tricked have had questionable performances, maybe even throws, but X6 is underperforming super hard. I see this BO3 as a 60/40 for X6, but there is a lot of risk involved. Add to that the current odds on lounge are unprofitable and you've got a skipperino from me.

My bet: X6tence (SKIP or RIP)

----------

AU > NZ

In my analysis of this game yesterday (postponed), I mentioned that there were tons of unknowns and that the only thing we knew were the potential players that would be playing for these two teams. I said that AU players have proven themselves to be better than NZ players, and I made a bet on AU. However the odds have become fairly unprofitable for the risk since then and as such I recommend a skip.

My Bet: AU (SKIP or RIP)

----------

Gosh, every game today is ridiculously risky. I actually wouldn't be surprised if I got them ALL wrong.

TSM vs Dignitas
Contrary to popular belief, I do not think TSM are in great form right now. They have lost a lot of games they should've won lately, and have not been putting up the scorelines one would predict. In their game against Fnatic yesterday, they only managed to win the entire series by a combined 3 rounds. Given TSM's amazing record against Fnatic, these scores do not reflect how they should've beaten a Fnatic without Olof. Conditions are pretty good to bet against TSM.

On the other hand, Dignitas have never looked strong against TSM. It doesn't seem to matter how they are playing, they always fall short against TSM. I believe TSM has around an 88% win rate against Dig.

Overall, given the conditions I believe this is a 70/30 game for TSM rather than an 85/15. Even though the odds are a bit skewed on lounge, I don't think the conditions are quite good enough for an underdog bet in this matchup.

My Bet: 2-1 TSM (SKIP or RIP)

----------

VP vs Kinguin
VP have always had issues with consistency. You either find Virtus Plow, who absolutely dominate their opponents, even the ones they aren't supposed to beat, or you have Virtus Throw, who under-perform termendously and give some of the biggest upsets in CS GO history.

Kinguin, on the other hand, is a star studded roster filled with very competent talent. However, they are a new team and are still in the early stages of forming a mesh with their team. We do not see them doing all the small things teams with more experience together do, such as having one player face towards an angle while the other faces away in case of a flash. I know this is just a small detail in the grand scheme of CS GO, but it really can be a deciding factor of a matchup given two teams of equal individual skill.

Overall, I think that VP will come out on top. VP will lose this match if they are playing very poorly and Kinguin is firing from all cylinders, abusing the individual skill of their team. I just don't see this outcome as likely enough to make the bet on Kinguin. This is another 65/35 in my eyes, but given the unknowns about how well Kinguin perform against top teams I can't give them a bet.

My bet: 2-0 VP (SKIP or RIP)

----------

EnvyUs vs Team Acer
EnvyUs is in terrible form right now. They are massively underperforming. This is not unknown. They can easily lose to any opponent they face at the moment.

Acer is a very solid team. They have played some amazing games and sometimes make me wonder if the whole damn team is hacking. I would totally bet on them here if it wasn't for the fact that Slap, a big fragger for the team, is not playing. There are also rumors that Threat will not be playing, either.

Sadly, this is another game where the conditions are almost right to take the risk on the underdog, but due to the unknown nature of how stand-in's will mesh with Team Acer I cannot make a bet on them.

My bet: 2-0 EnvyUs (SKIP or RIP)

----------

nEophyte vs Nerd Rage
Neophyte have been playing out of their minds recently. Yesterday they bested Dignitas 2-1 (off lounge), and lost to HR 2-1 later. They also picked up a 2-0 victory over ESC. They are hot right now and I don't think I have the balls to bet against them.

Nerd Rage is a shaky team at best. They have a lot of talent on their team (jOELZ op) and put up impressive scorelines, and definitely have the chops to beat neophyte. However I don't think there is enough of a chance for me to risk my skins on them. I'm saying this is a 65/35 game, but it will be close.

My bet: 2-1 nEophyte (SKIP or RIP)

----------

ESC vs KillerFish
ESC, while very inconsistent, has made some sizeable upsets since they were introduced to the lounge. They are competent, and I've seen them put up decent scorelines against multiple teams they've lost to.

KillerFish is basically the same story. Inconsistent with some big upsets.

I definitely feel like this is a 50/50 game. These teams can both play very poorly, and play very well. They will both make a lot of mistakes and it just depends on who is capitalizing on them better. Add in the fact that this is a BO1 and you've got the formula for an underdog win. At 60/40 it is a no-brainer bet on KillerFish for me.

My Bet: low on KFish ($25)

----------

AU vs NZ
Not a lot to cover here. There are so many unknowns it's ridiculous. The saving grace is that we know the possible players for each region, and obviously AU > NZ. If the odds settle around 70 for AU, I'll place a medium bet on the favorite.

My Bet: 2-0 AU ($50 if odds are reasonable)

----------

SKDC vs Lunatik
SKDC have been very hot lately. They seem to have gotten their stuff together and are here to play. Lunatik however is also a competent team who can easily beat SKDC on their day, so this match is a little bit unpredictable.

I do expect SKDC to remain hot and win this matchup, but there is some underdog value in Lunatik. I think the true odds are 60/40 favoring SKDC. Given that this is a BO5 and not a BO3, I will be skipping this game as the teams are just a tad too random for me and I don't know which one will be more consistent across a large series.

My Bet: 3-2 SKDC (SKIP or RIP)

----------

If you are reading this and you're not me. Please keep in mind I'm still perfecting my strategy. The game(s) I predict incorrectly today will be the games I take a lot of time to review and figure out why I was wrong. With that information I will improve on my strategy and adapt new formulas for success.