CS GO Lounge Underdog Analysis

You've stumbled upon my personal diary for underdog bet analysis. I like to keep track of my reasoning behind my bets on CSGO Lounge so I can come back and reflect on my decisions and perfect my betting strategy.

This group was made to be my personal log, but it is also a Steam Group, so it's always nice to meet new people who are interested in discussing strategy with me.

I started betting after I opened my first case. For $2.49 I received a ST FT M4A1-S Cyrex worth $200 at the time. I traded it out for some skins I liked as well as some I could bet, and within weeks I found myself with over $1000 in my inventory. This however was a curse in disguise. I formed a lot of greedy betting habits that in the end came back to bite me in the ass. A couple months into betting I was back down to a $200 inventory.

In order to counteract this I've practiced a new strategy. To start, I decided I would practice my betting skill by logging some of my thoughts and using a spreadsheet with a fake $300 starting budget. None of my bets would be real for the first week or so, but I would still try my best to predict the games accurately and watch them.

To stay disciplined in my strategy, I will put forth the effort to analyze all the games and type out those analysis I need. I will also log how much I would bet on each game as well as the end result. I will be using HLTV to review the scorecards of each individual game, taking note of how well each player is performing individually. In the meantime, I'm using Vulcun to feed my gambling needs.

To perform this strategy requires a lot of discipline. I cannot simply bet on every underdog I think has a chance to win, and I cannot make any greedy bets on any team in an attempt to "win big". I must stay vigilant in my approach, and avoid betting more than I can afford to lose.

A big factor in my decision to follow a strategy that relies more on profiting from underdogs is the fact that CSGL sports close to a 30% underdog win ratio from my calculations. That's nearly 1 in 3, so on an average 8 game day we can expect at least 2 underdog victories. I'm setting out to spot those underdogs.

Analyzing the conditions surrounding the matchups are a big part of this strategy. What are the variables (match history, map history, format)? Are there unknowns(stand-in, illness, family troubles)? Is the favored team in good form or bad form? How about the underdog? These are all questions I ask myself.

Why Skip or RIP?
So part of not being greedy involves a lot of skipping. When I see an ez 70/30 game, but the odds on lounge are 85/15, it deserves a skip. Not a greedy max for a chance at overpay.

On my first day using this strategy I nearly doubled my starting $300. Over the following weeks I shaped the way I bet and believe I have a nearly perfect strategy for myself. I sold out all of my skins and now use a real money betting platform.

Steam Donations
Spreadsheet[docs.google.com]