In this guide we will:
Pass an ultra-reformist constitution with 3% threshold and MOH abolishment.
Form your own party and win a 2nd term.
Stay neutral and not join any superpower.
Send the economy skyrocketing & end the recession early (on turn 5 just before first trade deals).
End with high investment synergy all across the board.
Excellent human rights conditions (women’s rights, minority rights)
Fund law enforcement, health, and education WITHOUT having to defund the military.
Reconcile with the Bluds and get rid of the special zone.
Complete both mega-projects and revitalize Sordland’s infrastructure.
“Relocate” both oligarchs to a private resort in antel rock prison.
Contain organized crime.
Provide glorious and robust socialist welfare (housing assistance, free public transport, free medicine, disability benefits, etc).
Become really popular.
End the game with a balanced 0 budget.
CUCK the Old Guard.
CUCK Lileas Graf.
CUCK the Oligarchs & Lotherberg.
CUCK the entire USP.
CUCK Beatrice Livingston.
CUCK ATO & friends.
CUCK the nationalists
Be listed as “Democratic Malenyevist” on the end screen.

No corruption (optional, unless you wanna forgo bribing Albin by adding weakened decrees then you can just not sign VAT and don't fund industry expansion)
No war (optional)
No coups (optional)

I designed this guide to be able to have a bit of wiggle room regarding budget and decisions, just try not to stray too far from it, especially in the later segments, you may not be able to get Citizens Mobility Act or Equal ability bill but it shouldn’t hurt the economy nor chances of re-election, it’s mostly just LARP. While I do recommend being nice to people as often as you can, personal relationships with characters can go either way. If you wanna roleplay Lucian betraying you and choosing a different strategist for the 2nd term, go for it. You wanna re-enact Marriage Story with Monica? The world is your oyster. I haven’t personally tested some of those but if something goes horribly wrong as consequence then don’t be surprised.

--
UPDATE 12/9/25:
Ok so it looks like Rumburg got a hell of a buff in a recent patch and consequently it is now no longer possible to beat them with a maintained military. If you plan to go to war then you'll need to raise the military budget which costs 4 budget. There are a myriad of ways you can go about actually getting that budget so frankly it's up to you on whatever you want to put on the chopping block. Personally, I'd recommend stuff like the industrial investment or the CMA, anything non-critical involving welfare can go without huge consequences. It should also be noted that taxing both corporations + SMEs is likely crucial to preventing a trade war. -8 budget seems to be the farthest you can go before it's triggered, so tread carefully right after you make your budget decisions.
--

As for actually doing the guide, budget will be tracked by displaying what it is at after every budget change as well as how much was added/subtracted. I.e.
Budget: 1 (+1)

For some of the events where it is important to know exactly what to say, I will explicitly name which dialogue options to choose. Usually it'll contain some keyword from the dialogue choice or be an abridged version of it, they will be separated by commas.

Prologue choices are mostly RP although choosing easier resources as well as economics + student council is heavily recommended as if not then you may not be able to get +4 budget with the fiscal review and or the trade war may occur if you're playing on normal mode. If you're insistent on going for normal mode, just follow this guide but invest one budget into getting the railway done on time as we need the extra ED, then when decrees are made instead of doing free medicine just free political prisoners and do not invest in any industrial expansion. As for PW, buy all you can from armadine, don't give anything from Serge, buy the vineyard if you want but don't invest in FC Anrica, spend four PW on reforms when the time comes. Do all that and you should be good. I always just headcanon the easier resources as a product of Rizia's large bond investment (which will take place in a guide that goes along with this).

Prologue:
Be born poor
Easier resources (refer to the above paragraph if you don't want this)
Study economics
Join debate club
Support Monica
Join red youth
Vote for the USP
Let the refugees slip through (sorry lancea)
Change the country for the better
Sacrifice family time to improve position in party.
Watch from the sidelines.
Accept Soll’s offer.
Vote for Soll.
Campaign for Alphonso.
Make Sordland a better place.
Advise Alphonso to step down.
Enact democratic reforms

Promises:
Planned economy
Remain neutral
Retain relaxed immigration
Fund anything but military (preferably education or health for commie larp, it's important to note that if you promise and fund healthcare, then you'll get an additional popularity boost if you choose to give free medicine on turn 8)

Inauguration: Brothers and sisters, the idea of unity, the issues that plauge us, stop the recession, change now, wave
Political Situation: Work with the reformists
Economic Briefing: Promote Planned economy
Media Strategy: Call Marcel but tell him you’re not interested in meeting (saves us having to go and tell him no to his face, you can really do whatever you want as long as you don't accept his offer, he'll slander us to hell and back either way)
Campaign Finance Bill: Veto
Mega-infrastructure project: Fund, go for L-1 Railway (public transport is inherently socialist anyways…..)
Budget: 8 (-1)
Invest in amardine: Buy 2000 shares
PW: 0 (-2)
Ball: Work with everyone, I welcome it, Absolutely. Watch Circas get smoked and try not to make Deana cry again.
Emergency Meeting: Tell your ministers that you’ll press on with the reforms regardless of the situation

Dinner at home: Be nice to Franc, don’t yell at him too much.
Security Briefing: Make sure to Salute the generals, it’ll make Valken hate you slightly less
End of the day: Smoke a fat one with Tusk, accept his bribe if you want, ask for more money when he bribes you and take it (as long as you don’t actually follow through with Tusk’s request, it doesn’t count as corruption when you take the bribe)
PW: 2 (+2)
React to unrest: Visit affected towns in person.
Economic Relief Plan: Don’t enact anything
L-1 Finalization: SSC
Budget: 7 (-1)
Funeral: Attend. Hold your own damn umbrella. Let those red youth guys in. Heinous act, unified sordland, hatred, recite poem, our songs, moment of silence, a morgna wes core
Current Diplomatic Situation: Condemn Rumburg.
TCPA: Sign
Budget: 6 (-1)

Reform Briefing: Agree with Ricter’s points, push for comprehensive reforms.
Meeting with Hawker: Tell him no for the sollist LARP.
Barbeque with Franc: Traumatize your son (or don’t, i don’t care)
The Narbel Extravaganza (im linking all four events into one paragraph): Have a nice ride with Serge, talk to him about his kids, give him 2 PW if you want (if you choose to do this you'll have to forgo an FC anrica investment). Talk to Ciara and Paskal, meetup with Alphonso and be nice to him, invest fully into Gasom and then have Alphonso commit to raising worker wages. Face the protestors. Once you get outside, glaze the protesters, don’t be confrontational or rude to Denis. Once you have the opportunity, tell them about the wage raise and you should be off scot-free.
Budget: 4 (-2)
Stability Order: Don’t ban either
GREEN Bill: Veto, we’ll need that one budget for the free medicine down the line
CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES!!!!!: Limit vetos, the assembly and supreme court may impeach, confidence vote required, decrease threshold to 3%, do not change decrees, introduce 2 term limit, justices may be impeached by assembly, abolish member of honor
EPA meeting: Remove the EPA (if you want to get planned economy instead of mixed economy, go for 49% and get the 4 budget and skip the industrial investment on turn 8)
Business Council Meeting: Eat (with) the rich. Respectfully decline Tusk's deal, you can also ask him for another bribe for ♥♥♥♥♥ and giggles after blatantly breaking your promise on his first one.
BUDGET ALLOCATION WOOOOOOOOO: Fund everything except military, maintain that one.
Budget: -4 (-8)

WRA: Sign
Budget: -5 (-1)
Budget Allocation of Law enforcement: Fund ministry of justice, form the ACP.
Evening walk with Monica: Promise her a chance to speak at the Benfi festival
Regional investment decision: Lorren
Budget: -7 (-2)
L-1 Construction Issues: Fire the stupid managers
Tax meeting: Tax big corporations, do not change taxes for small businesses.
Budget: -4 (+3)
Alphonso Foundation Donations: Do not donate
School inspection: Smile for the cameras, tell the principal to make the changes when the girl objects, don't take down the Soll portrait unless you wanna lose constitution votes.
Education reform: Reform education, do NOT privatize.
Gruni investment: Fund crop research
Budget: -5 (-1)
Meeting with Gloria Tory: Tell her to shove it, we’re done kneeling to the conservatives!
Chess with Lucian: Win, or lose, it’s up to you. Honestly I just hang out with the family at home.
Meeting with Clavin: Promise him VP in exchange for his vote. Address the assembly: Ladies and gentlemen, undemocratic, USP needs to survive, ask for their votes.

Superpower Aid: Accept CSP aid (they gave us a better deal anyway….)
Budget: -2 (+3)
Religious Harmony Bill: Veto
Call from Gus: Get that money
PW: 6 (+4)
Immigration Meeting: Keep relaxed immigration
Petr’s “Gentlemen” club: Talk with Gus and invest in FC Anrica if you want
PW: 4 (-2)
Benfi Festival: Tell Curtan to get back in his ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ seat, be firm and tell him off but don’t have him dragged away by guards.
Downtime at Home: Tell Monica she can go into politics (we’ll side with Ciara on the issues later)
Formation of new police force: Focus ACP on the old guard for now.
Armed Forces budget allocation: Side with Lancea and downsize the army in favor of buying newer equipment.
Agnolia trade talks: be nice to van hoorten, take the bad deal, do NOT ally, do NOT recognize heljiland.
Budget: -3 (-1)
Wehlen trade talks: Salute the soldiers, pull him aside for more photos of yourself. Do the partial operation bear trap.
Reform Speech: Ladies and gentlemen, elected assembly overshadowed, democratic era, rebalance, unity, embrace the future, tell Tory to piss off when she interrupts you, join us for change, vote for our proposal, problems of the past, finish with poem, pick the choices that rhyme, ask to speak, mr kibener, everyone, together, i expect your vote, mr ricter, rest assured, i expect your support

Meeting with Lancea: Tell Lancea to be lenient with the border, remove conscription, make sure to salute
Budget: -1 (+2 from removing conscription)
Economic briefing: Economy getting better! Yay!!!!
2nd megaproject: Benfi airport or Morna port, take your pick (Benfi airport is cooler but Morna port gives a better economy bonus due to trade with Valgsland. I’ve done some testing and I’ve been able to achieve high investment synergy with Benfi airport but it’s finicky and I don’t know if it’s guaranteed with this latest version of the guide but I do know that Morna port is much better at getting high investment synergy if you really do want that).
Budget: -3 (-2)
Bergia Meeting: Go with Lileas’s plan to centralize Bergia (this is optional, you can form the semi-autonomous zone if you want although it may be a bit harder to get past the assembly and it’s not good for synergy).
Central Bank reformation act: Sign
Budget: -4 (-1)
Healthcare allocation: Do not privatize, build schools or increase rural healthcare if you wanna get rid of the red modifier.
Meeting with Ricter: Ask him about rumors, give him a slap on the wrist
Company contract: SSC
Budget -5 (-1)
Call with Gus: You now own a part of FC Anrica, splendid
PW: 5 (+1)
Meeting on education: Build new schools
Curriculum meeting: Force evolution and ban creationism
Gasom divestment: Sell two-thirds of shares
Lobbying effort in assembly: Spend vast sums (THIS IS NECESSARY TO PASS REFORMS)
PW: 1 (-4)
Victory Day: Passing articles 6 and 7 won’t be possible with the current proposal. Just go for the lame Sollist route.
Gasom Sale result: Very high returns
Budget: 1 (+6, we are so ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ back)

Call from Marcel: Tell him you won’t touch HOS but stop him when he suggests screwing over Tusk.
Meeting with Lucian: Go for nationalization, tell him about the call, be honest
Ownership changes: Nationalize Bergia Steel
Budget -1 (-2)
Results: Enjoy watching Tusk lose everything, don’t worry about Koronti, his time will come soon enough.
Unified Education Act: erm… VETO!!!!!
The Vote: Win, don’t yell at the MPs.
Result meeting: Ally with Ricter (more bureaucratic tape to wade through for Lileas once we get ousted)
Rumburg Whistleblower: Grant asylum
Movie Premier: Tell the reporter: I trust the justices, of course I was. Be respectful to Soll when he walks in on you using the urinal.
Diplomatic Briefing: Begin negotiations with Valgsland
Dinner with the family: Send Franc to either the military or United Contana (I prefer the former as it keeps him home and makes you look good)
Day of Decension: Bow to the archpriest, pull him aside for more photos, do your confessions (do not mention shady dealings if you did any, i cant say for certain if confessing that carries any risk but i found "[\"BaseGameIsolated.Turn07_A_Confessed_Bribery\"]=false," in the code, so im not gonna try it), tell him off if he brings up the Benfi festival or creationism. Don’t screw up the ceremony, scepter with your left hand, altar with your right, kneel to the archpriest, right hand for the sword, hand scepter to archpriest, pass the sword on to the disciples
Dinner with big J isabel: Rise to greet her, good to see you justice edmonds, let her order first, order that ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ salad, how’s the situation, what do you think, balance of power, we need a better democracy, respectable justices, ensure processes executed in transparency, please help us, judiciary should not have legislative powers, im a democratic socialist, we are in this together, judicial review, plays an essential role, threshold not only affects them but us, safety mechanism, i have no such plans, stay silent. Do all that and she should say yes
Heron: Send Lucian
Heron Meeting: Ask Heron to provide evidence in return for replacing the chief justice after impeachment (we aren’t going to heed to that promise in any way shape or form, we don’t even need his vote to win either, all we need is the evidence and frankly i just like ♥♥♥♥♥♥♥ with him)
Court Voting: Reforms pass 8 out of 11! Hug Petr and enjoy the moment
Cabinet Meeting: Clap for Petr, announce PFJP Alliance, does anyone have any concerns?, i am open to reconsider, vote on it, win, hear the brief reports, don’t promise lileas the gendarmerie, change party manifesto (this is important to getting kicked out), organize an impeachment against hawker as well, talk with Karl and tell him to change his focus to the oligarchs.
Address to the Nation: Brothers and sisters, i am happy, two years ago, we need to remember, we made a constitution, ive spoken with, new term limits, beyond this, we have also lowered our unfair election threshold, we are creating a nation, we will not rest, let history say, i will not let any, the future is in our hands, for a sordland of vision, we’re not here to congratulate ourselves, a morgna wes core

Departure: Say bye to Franc, be nice to him as usual
L-1 Rail opening: Credit yourself during the speech, make sure to emphasize the economic benefits of the project for maximum popularity, drive that train, nobody will give a damn that it's late (probably).
Discussion on changes to law: Change platform to socialist (this will make several MPs leave the USP which will weaken it in the future), elect the most experienced judge.
AS FOR DECREES: Fair trade and competition commission, VAT, free medicine, if you really want you can switch out free medicine for REI.
Budget: 0 (+1)
Bergia Standardization and unity act: Sign
Budget: -1 (-1)
Trade talks with Valgsland: Talk with Hegel, be nice to him, do NOT ally him unless you intend to go to war, although accept his offer to recognize heljiland as Valgish
Budget: 0 (+1)
Meeting with Petr: Go through the motions with him, call Lucian
Budget: 2 (+2, taxes!!!!)
Meeting with Lucian: Choose to investigate Livia
Results of affair scandal: Blame Livia solely, tell Petr we’re laying this at Rumburg’s feet
Press release: blame rumburg, let reporter ask a question, further divide the administration, lies
Women’s rights briefing: Agree with Ciara’s points, tell them you’ll run it through the assembly
Gendarmerie Mediation: Side with Iosef, don’t transfer.
Equal ability bill: Sign
Budget: 1 (-1)
Oligarch Situation Update: Tell Nia to keep it up with the ACP investigations. DON'T call Marcel. Even if you just ask him about his cartel ties, he'll get spooked and you won't be able to find any evidence.
Healthcare meeting: Mandate polio vaccines
Healthcare spending: State of the art med-school (or scholarships, but that's less fun). It gives one ED which will be needed to reach the fiscal treasury threshold.
Support Aschraf (no convoy):
Aschraf: Raise Leke’s hand, pick up candle (not the red one, duh), light it together with mansoum, brothers and sisters, watani aschraf, brave men and women, i share your anger, love thy brothers and sisters, i feel responsible, the responsibility, to our unity, give mansoum a biggol hug
Briefing on political situation: everyone loves us, yay!!!!
United Contana investment: Accept
Budget: 2 (+1)
Industrial Expansion: Electronics

Fiscal review reveals treasury (OPEN THIS ONE FIRST): Large surplus
Budget: 4 (+4)
WLA: Sign
Budget: 2 (-2)
End of the day at home: Order a pizza, talk with Franc, watch the game.
Human Dignity bill: Veto
Child for the future: Sign
Budget: 1 (-1)
Minority Meeting: Sign Leke’s decree
Alcohol Tax act: Sign
Fair luxury tax act: Sign
Normally I would suggest vetoing so they can get overturned but after testing it doesn’t seem to work unfortunately as the CMA does not get brought up.
Budget: 4 (+3)
Don’t fund youth groups
Koronti Situation: Sit back and watch Koronti get captured
Emergency Meeting: Be diplomatic, have military parade
Rayne 57’ campaign: Small-scale ad campaign
PW: 0 (-2)
Citizens mobility act: Sign that ♥♥♥♥
Budget: 1 (-3)
USP Election speech: Have Tusk arrested and locked up, him and Koronti will have all the time in the world to brood about their downfall together in Antel Rock, victory is close banner, brothers and sisters, tested again and again, the rayne administration stands, re-election, united, reformed constitution, i remain committed, sordland has changed, I have devoted, shall not back down, form a broad coalition, vote rayne 57
Budget: 2 (+1 from tax efficient economy)
Economic Briefing: Provide housing assistance to the homeless.
Budget: 0 (-2, nice and balanced)
Kyrute interview: We have reason to believe, i hope, i hope, hope, we have evidence, all nonsense, first, valgsland has right to intervene, as a peacekeeping force, it breaks my heart, civilians from militants, thank you for coming to sordland
Lileas will put a knife in your back, not entirely unexpected.

Merkopan cup: Give a speech to the boys in the locker room. Hang out with Soll and Alphonso as FC Anrica kicks Rizia’s ass. At least Soll hates you less than he hates Alphonso
AN Meeting: Don’t jeer or shout, be respectful, applaud the speeches, reveal rumburg’s military actions and nukes, do all that and you’ll be golden.
Hug Deivid, thank him for everything, the old fellow deserves some rest
Symon will resign unfortunately, be polite and give him a hug and kiss goodbye
USP Congress: Get kicked out by Lileas, form your own party (i personally like to do the sordish prosperity party)
As for the debate and final speech, heed the same advice I gave before. I’d recommend promising to go to the moon as it appeals to centrists and liberals, i don't see much use in appealing to the socialists, you're so popular with them that they'd jump off a bridge if you told them to. Besides all that, it’s up to you.

Give your grand speech and enjoy winning.

If you've done all I have done, then theoretically you should get a paper which reports a 73% government satisfaction rating, however I've had trouble replicating this in recent runs. Torpor has been doing a lot of silent adjustments to Sordland's balancing lately so popularity might take a hit but otherwise you should win the election no problem.
(UPDATE):
Ok, I'm almost certain Torpor has been doing some kind of balancing as under normal circumstances it now only comes back as a 50% satisfaction rating, how? I don't know. I think it might be a glitch because realistically one should not be getting a 50% rating on easy mode of all things.

Special thanks to the following:

People of the r/suzerain subreddit for bits and advice (in specific, u/anomander_galt for informing me on the ACP old guard-oligarch strategy).
u/ParagonAlex333 and his 3.09 guide for the economic blueprint of this guide.
Steam user Nevgon Givyup for his max economic development guide.
All involved with the Catspaw synergy chart.
Steam user Rocco752 and their democratic socialist guide for the method on dealing with the oligarchs.
Torpor and the Suzerain team for this great experience.
You for playing through this guide!