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Idk if you mean an oligarchy can stagnate and be reborn as a dicatorship, or that others can stagnate and be reborn as a dicatorship, or popular uprising or dissolve by outside forces, they can also break up without outside forces, but a dictatorship will also want for stagnation. Monarchies, Dictatorships, Oligarchies, even Democracies. People who get in power will occasionally want to remain in power and given enough time stagnation is likely to set in.
I still don't think you will get stagnation unless you have an oligarchy who has an incentive to keep it so.It can rise again via dictatorship or popular uprising or it can be dissolved by outside forces.
I think all fallen empires should have some kind of leadership caste. Where the exact details of responsibility and power have completely faded away. Where they just are individuals with power and the only purpose of the few institutions left is to maintain that power.
An AI system that has total control of a civilization could keep it stagnant for one reason or another. Either out of spite or because it thinks it is protecting it.
A Democratic system could want for stagnation without progress because the majority of people think progress is a bad thing. Perhaps fear of nanotechnology and other systems cause them to remain as they are.
The issue here is we only have historic examples that involve humans. But it isnt too hard to come up with logical reasons why any other thing could also stagnate.
Also you say without an oligarchy, a declining empire will either start to rise again or dissolve. But that still applies to them. Given time they could either rise up or dissolve even as an oligarchy. Given enough time most systems could stagnate, then rise or dissolve.
It's not oligarchy every time but from what I know of history it seems to be by far the most common one. The eunich oligarchy was a key part in the Ming decline, the jannisaries in the Ottoman one, the Dutch stagnation and the Polish collapse.
"fallen empires" are in a state of stagnation for a very long time and that really can only happen via an oligarchy of some kind. One that has an incentive to prevent anything from changing. Without an oligarchy a declining empire would either reverse it's fortunes or just dissolve, not remain in a state of stagnation for decades or even centuries.
So it would have to involve you having to play out your aristcrats against each other in some way.
The book 1984 pretty much is a description of how fallen empires come to be. When everything becomes about the elite not losing their power and everything else atrophies or is intentionaly abolished.
There was some ways I have considered in the past that would make for fun becoming a fallen empire mechanics.
But something simple would just be a series of solve this problem or become FE, and being an FE in the simplest sense would just be huge malus to everything meaning the player cannot do anything.
Which would not be a fun way to play. I can think of some fun ways but they are much more complicated than this simple mod was. But you are right that done good it would be neat