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The weather screenshots for the sprinkler races in Ernie's Paradise aren't going to be useful to you. Weather seeding seems to be baked in, but the sprinklers seed randomly at the start of your season, and will trigger at different races/times.
4 out of 4 tries now the crash has been DURING lap 2 and only throws yellows... Have they changed it or did you get lucky?
I also got lucky and he crashed out on the 4th or 5th try.
You can try and slow down the frontrunners with Hall in the Wet tyre stint.
Just go low on tyres and fuel and you should still stay ahead while Schmidt catches up.
Start pushing 2 laps before the pits to surely keep P1 and that should've helped with Schmidt